Timing the Market

People like to try to time the market.  But how can they tell when a good time to get in or out is?  In this month’s analysis I look at historically how the market has performed over the next twelve months given its performance over the previous twelve months.  The results seem counterintuitive, but maybe that’s why timing the market doesn’t usually work out very well.

If there are investment topics you’re interested in that I haven’t covered yet please send me an email:

joseph AT StockMarketMovement.com

 

Ride Out or Sit Out a Bear Market

We aren’t quite in a bear market right now, but we’re definitely in correction territory.  The Dow and NASDAQ are down about 10% from their all-time highs earlier this year.

With that as a back drop, the current analysis covers, historically, if it was better to sell and sit out the market whenever there was a drop of 20% from the peak in the previous 200 trading days, or if it was better to just hold and wait it out.

If there are investment topics you’re interested in that I haven’t covered yet please send me an email:

joseph AT StockMarketMovement.com

How To Use This Website

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I’m putting options trading strategies here, which is what I get the most requests for.  These pages include historical results of various options trading strategies.

I have analyses on generating lifetime income here.

Miscellaneous analyses that don’t below anywhere else are here.

If you use the content or ideas on this website, either on your electronic or printed material, please attribute it by including a plainly visible link back to this website.

For questions, comments, or to discuss research ideas or collaboration, you can contact me at:

joseph AT StockMarketMovement.com

 

Model A Indicator Output Meanings

A couple of people have asked me what the Model A outputs (‘Positive’ and ‘Negative’), mean.

A ‘Positive’ output means that in the past, under similar conditions, there was a greater than average chance that the market would be higher in 4 weeks than it was when the output was made.

A ‘Negative’ output means that in the past, under similar conditions, the model did not provide any statistically useful information about market direction over the next 4 weeks.