Model C

I created Model C to see if it could provide a useful indication of whether the market is more likely than average to be higher in 4 weeks than it currently is. The QQQ ETF is used as a proxy for the market.

A ‘Positive’ model output means that in the past, under similar conditions, there was a greater than average chance that the market would be higher in 4 weeks than it was when the output was made.

A ‘Negative’ model output means that in the past, under similar conditions, the model did not provide any statistically useful information about likely market direction over the next 4 weeks.

YearPositive CountPositive Up PercentPositive Avg ChangeNegative CountNegative Up PercentNegative Avg Change
2019771.4%+2.9%4575.6%+2.4%
2020
2021
2022

Keep in mind that Model C was created based on past market behavior, but future market behavior may be very different than past behavior.