Model A

An annual summary of Model A’s results is below.

I created Model A to see if it could provide a useful indication of whether the market is more likely than average to be higher in 4 weeks than it currently is. The QQQ ETF is used as a proxy for the market.

A ‘Positive’ model output means that in the past, under similar conditions, there was a greater than average chance that the market would be higher in 4 weeks than it was when the output was made.

A ‘Negative’ model output means that in the past, under similar conditions, the model did not provide any statistically useful information about likely market direction over the next 4 weeks.

This website only provides historical values of the market model output. To get the current model output value, subscribe to my free weekly newsletter on the home page of this website.

The table below is an annual summary of Model A’s performance. For each year the table lists:

The number of ‘Positive’ signals it gave
The percentage of ‘Positive’ signals where the market was higher 4 weeks later
The average percentage change in the market on a ‘Positive’ signal 4 weeks later
The number of ‘Negative’ signals it gave
The percentage of ‘Negative’ signals where the market was higher 4 weeks later
The average percentage change in the market on a ‘Negative’ signal 4 weeks later

I encourage you to look at the weekly results (e.g., the 2016 weekly results) as well as the annual summary. Averages are useful, but they hide a lot of important information.

I’m primarily interested in the ‘Positive’ signal statistics. I include the ‘Negative’ signal statistics for comparison purposes.

YearPositive CountPositive Up PercentPositive Avg ChangeNegative CountNegative Up PercentNegative Avg Change
20163070.0%+1.7%2263.6%+1.2%
20172684.6%+2.4%2696.2%+2.2%
2018
2019

Keep in mind that Model A was created based on past market behavior, but future market behavior may be very different than past behavior.