Model A Indicator Output Meanings

A couple of people have asked me what the Model A outputs (‘Positive’ and ‘Negative’), mean.

A ‘Positive’ output means that in the past, under similar conditions, there was a greater than average chance that the market would be higher in 4 weeks than it was when the output was made.

A ‘Negative’ output means that in the past, under similar conditions, the model did not provide any statistically useful information about market direction over the next 4 weeks.